This is the second article in the Lotto Lies series. This article is about a single word; the word Random. The word ‘Random’ is so misunderstood and misused, that I consider its meaning to be a Lottery Secret. So, read on and all will be revealed.
Lotto Lie #2- The lottery is arandomgame of chance.
Random
What does this sentence mean? Let’s break it down. The words ‘game of chance’ refers to the fact that probabilities are involved. People all over the world play games of chance every day. Professional gamblers do too, and are quite good at it. Professional gamblers are successful because they thoroughly understand the game and they are experts at applying the laws of probability.
There are some who believe that the phrase ‘game of chance’ is simple code for ‘you’re going to lose’. But, Professional Gamblers know that it means ‘Opportunity’. This is true for all games of chance, including the lottery. Yes, you can improve your chances of winning the lottery.
The definition of the word random is, “a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.” If it were actually possible to implement this definition in the real world then:
Let’s Flip a Coin
Case in point: A coin is flipped 100 times. The results are 65 Heads and 35 Tails; an obvious trend here. So, the mathematician says, “You have to run more trials. And, eventually the results will be equal.” So, the coin is flipped 10,000 times and, lo and behold; 5008 Heads and 4992 Tails. For all intents and purposes, the occurrences of Heads and Tails are equal and the mathematician happily sends us on our way knowing that he has proven the game is random.
But it wasn’t very random after 100 trials. It was somewhat more random after 1,000 trials. It looks pretty random after 10,000 trials. You see, random is not an absolute; its applicability changes based upon situation and circumstance. There are conditions, circumstances, and factors that change the probabilities.
The mathematician who wrote the book “factor ofLuck” changed the meaning of random to an assortment of probabilities. He removed the randomness because he had programmed the computer to produce a random selection of numbers. The computer had been programmed to select numbers from a variety of dials that had been spun in a factory. Now, the computer was programmed to select numbers at random.
Knowing that a computer program could not be programmed to select numbers from just 17 numbers, or to predict the outcome of Roulette, Baseball or Horse Racing, the mathematician had to come up with a way to make the computer program predict anything. He did just that. He programmed the computer to predict the outcome of the coin toss example above.
By the way, the engineer who developed the computer program for predicting the outcome of coin tosses later admitted that the prediction of coin tosses was not random. He had programmed the computer to select numbers that were more likely to show up on a coin toss. The numbers that were “QQdewa” had more statistical predictability than numbers that were “cold”, or more likely to come up on the next toss.
You can find similar stories with computer programs that beat the lotto every day. The predictability of the numbers is usually not random at all. And, the programmer has hidden the algorithms and formulas that allow the computer to select numbers that are more likely to appear.